Forecast SROI analysis of the Youth Prevention and Diversion program (Circular Head Aboriginal Corporation)
The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet commissioned Social Ventures Australia (SVA) Consulting to understand, measure and value the changes generated by Indigenous justice programs. The Social Return on Investment (SROI) methodology was used to complete this analysis. This analysis was undertaken to assist the Department to better understand and articulate the value of the Youth Prevention and Diversion program run by the Circular Head Aboriginal Corporation and to improve program delivery, including measurement and evaluation.
- The Youth Prevention and Diversion program is likely to have a substantial impact on the lives of young Aboriginal people in Smithton (Tasmania) who are at risk of offending. This should have flow on effects to their families, the community mentors involved in the program and the justice system.
- If the current investment is maintained, $847k is forecast to be invested into the program over the next five years. This includes cash investment from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet ($694k) and cash and in-kind support from the Circular Head Aboriginal Corporation ($154k). There is forecast to be approximately $12k per annum invested each young person in the program.
- Based on this level of investment, the social value associated with the outcomes of the program is forecast to be $4.8m over the next five years ($952k per annum).
- Almost half of this value ($430k per annum) is attributable to the reallocation of justice system resources that would ordinarily be used to address the young people's anti-social and offending behaviour.
- When the $4.8m in social value that is expected to be generated is compared to the anticipated $0.8m investment in the program, the Social Return on Investment (SROI) ratio equates to 6:1. This means for every $1 that is forecast to be invested in the program between FY15 to FY19, approximately $6 of social value is expected to be created.
- If the anticipated funding from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (approx. $139k per annum) is considered independently, the Social Return on Investment ratio is 7:1.
- If the impact of the program on the justice system is isolated, the SROI ratio is 3:1. Investment into the program is justified even if the program was to be successful with only 1 in 5 young people who go through the program (SROI ratio is 1.4:1).
- If the impact of the program on young people is isolated, the SROI is 3:1. This indicates that if only the objective measures, or only the subjective measures of the program impact are taken into account, the social value created is forecast to be greater than the investment required to generate this value.